In the Senate, Minister of National Economy Ruslan Dalenov spoke about the forecast of the country's socio-economic development for 2021-2025, the Kapital.kz business information center reports.
"Considering the conservative approach, the baseline scenario was used as the basis for budget planning. Average annual GDP growth in the baseline scenario will be 4%. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.8% in 2021. In 2025 it will reach 4.6%. Nominal GDP will amount to KZT 76.7 trillion in 2021, and in 2025 - KZT 104.8 trillion. Oil production in 2021 will amount to 86 million tons with an increase in 2025 to 100.7 million tons," Ruslan Dalenov said at the plenary meeting in the Senate.
According to the minister, Kazakhstan can seriously increase export supplies, as well as imports of goods. Thus, the export of goods will amount to USD 41.4 billion in 2021 with an increase to USD 51.5 billion in 2025.
Imports will increase from USD 36.3 billion in 2021 to USD 37.8 billion in 2025. When preparing the three-year budget for 2021-2023, the following forecast parameters were used. Real GDP growth of 2.8% in 2021, 3.7% in 2022 and 4.6% in 2023. Inflation is 4-6% in 2021-2022 and 4-5% in 2023. Oil production at 86 million tons in 2021, 89.6 million tons in 2022 and 100.8 million tons in 2023. The oil price is set at USD 35 per barrel in 2021-2023, taking into account a conservative approach.
The manufacturing industry will be growing by 6.7% on average per year, the mining industry by 2.9%. Average annual growth rates in agriculture will amount to 6.2%, in trade - 5.5%.
According to the head of the Ministry of National Economy, the current forecast of budget parameters is based on these macroeconomic indicators.
The US Congress approved the 2020 Bill of Belarusian Democracy, Human Rights and Sovereignty.
In January-September 2020, the GDP of Belarus amounted to BYN 106.6 billion, or in comparable prices 98.7% over the same period in 2019. In addition to the coronavirus epidemic and two currency crises, the main impact on the economic decline was made by the decrease in turnover in the petrochemistry and mechanical engineering.
Among other obvious factors, the protests in Belarus were the result of global changes in the economy. The old model, the tangible industrial one, is more and more moving aside, and it is being replaced by a new, information technology model generally known as postindustrial.
In 2020, the Belarusian economy experienced several disturbances: a decrease in the Russian crude supplies, the pandemic consequences, and two foreign exchange crises in March and August. As a result, the GDP of Belarus in January-July 2020 amounted to BYN 80.0 billion, or 98.4% in comparable prices compared with the same period in 2019.
In January-March 2020, Belarus; GDP amounted to 99.7% in comparable prices as against January-March 2019. Although Belarus' GDP gradually began to win back the January fall in February-March of this year, the index is nevertheless decreasing.